Rove and Giuliani
August 13, 2007
Tee Bee asks about Karl Rove’s future plans:
Do you buy the whole “I’m going to write a book, and maybe teach” bit? I don’t. This is the perfect time for Bush’s brain to sign onto another campaign.
The only question is, will it be Mitt or Rudy?
Giuliani’s campaign is a far better fit for Karl Rove’s talents than is Mitt Romney’s. Giuliani’s chance at winning the Republican nomination will depend almost entirely on his ability to convince conservative voters that he’s one of them, despite the fact that all available evidence points to his being a authoritarian jerk with no political convictions at all. (*)
He can’t play the anti-abortion card, because he pretty obviously doesn’t give a shit about the issue one way or another. His record on other conservative totems — immigration, or gun control, for example — is no more inspiring to the base than his assertion during the first GOP debate that it would be “okay” if Roe v. Wade was overturned, and also “okay” if it wasn’t. And his claim to be a foreign policy expert doesn’t go beyond rhetoric, and won’t survive even cursory scrutiny, his options are limited.
So instead, he’s left to argue that he hates liberals and Democrats. The implicit message to the conservative base is an instinctual, emotional one: with enemies like these, he must be on your side. (Hillary Clinton is the beneficiary of a similar dynamic on the left.) Not surprisingly, Karl Rove’s talents are best employed in this kind of effort.
The methods of Karl Rove’s that get the most attention are just garden-variety dirty tricks, taken to an amoral low: stuff like accusing opponents of pedophilia, or, famously, accusing John McCain of fathering illegitimate black children.
But his real talents lie in creating an image for a candidate that has emotional resonance. The possession fo that image is Giuliani’s strongest selling point, and reinforcing a candidate’s strengths is a far easier job than turning a weakness (Mitt Romney’s inability to project an “I hate Democrats” vibe, no matter how hard he tries) into a political advantage.
(*) Mitt Romney’s problem, by contrast, is that all the evidence points to his being a moderate, consensus-building business executive with no political convictions at all.